When shoppers tighten their belts and advertisers trim marketing budgets, retailers might start to feel a pinch as GMV dips to the ground. And as broad, brand-awareness campaigns on Meta, Google, and other platforms get also cut, on the surface it feels like a double hit.  But here’s the silver lining. Even though with declining transactions and shrinking ad dollars, this slowdown is an opportunity; because advertisers aren’t going anywhere, they’re only reallocating.

Instead of spreading spend across generic campaigns, they’re moving dollars into channels that directly link ad exposure to sales. And for that, nothing competes with retail media networks. For retailers, this is a golden moment. With more advertiser dollars flowing into retail media, they can turn digital traffic into a high-margin revenue stream, even when GMV is slightly going down…

1. Understanding the Double Hit: Falling GMV and Shrinking Ad Budgets

When economic conditions turn sour, the pain hits from two sides: lower sales and shrinking marketing spend by advertisers. Here’s how it goes.

• Shoppers tighten their belts. Companies globally report subdued consumer demand, shrinking basket sizes, and delayed purchases. For retailers, that means a gross merchandise volume; fewer orders, smaller carts, and more discount pressure.
  
  
• Advertisers pull back. Brands respond with caution: fewer brand campaigns across platforms, tighter bidding, and a shift away from broad awareness spending toward performance‑driven channels.

Together, this double whammy creates a tough reality: less revenue from commerce and potential redirection of customers from ads away from their platforms. But here’s the shift few expect: advertisers don’t disappear, they reposition. They hunt for advertising channels that prove value. That’s exactly where retail media networks come in: platforms where every impression can be traced to a purchase.

2. Why Reduced Ad Spend Can Actually Be a Good Thing

Less money on ads may not be a bad thing at all. In fact, tighter budgets force advertisers to be smarter! When big, unmeasured brand‑awareness campaigns get trimmed, brands they seek certainty. They want their ad spend to connect directly to returns. And in that search, retail media shines brightest because it offers:

• Real shoppers, not just anonymous clicks. Ads reach validated audiences, people browsing or buying on your site or app.
  
  
• Closed‑loop measurement. Every ad impression, click, and checkout conversion stays within your ecosystem, getting advertisers transparent results.
  
  
• Deterministic targeting. With first-party shopper data, you target real buyer segments (loyalists, frequent buyers, cart‑abandoners) rather than modeled audiences with fuzzy intent.

When budgets shrink, brands crave accountability. And retail media delivers, making every ad dollar count. 

3. Why Retail Media Is the Ultimate “Proof‑of‑Performance” Channel

Unlike generalized digital ads, retail media networks connect exposure, intent, and purchase, all in one place. For advertisers watching every spend decision, that clarity is gold. Here’s how retail media stacks up against traditional channels:

Instead of offering vague reach numbers or click‑through stats, retail media delivers sales lift, return on ad spend (ROAS), and conversion attribution. Because ads live inside the shopping environment, every interaction, from view to buy, happens under one roof.

And the data backs it: global advertising research shows retail media ad investment will hit close to US$153.3 billion in 2024, posting a 13.7% year‑on‑year growth. By 2026, that figure is expected to edge close to US$175 billion, putting retail media among the fastest‑growing digital ad channels.

In plain terms, advertisers are shifting money where they can measure results, and retail media gives them the exact clarity they need. 

4. How Retailers Are Adapting Retail Media to Economic Reality

Smart retailers aren’t just keeping their retail media setup alive, they’re optimizing it for resilience. These are the strategies winning right now:

• Self‑serve Campaign Control

Instead of managed‑service waiting, enabling a self‑serve interface lets brands set up campaigns, adjust bids, and launch experiments themselves. This reduces overhead and speeds up activation when time and budgets are tight.

• Smarter Use of Shopper Data

With first-party data, segmentation becomes sharper: from “frequent buyers,” “deal‑seekers,” to the “loyalists.” Ads tuned to real buying behavior tend to perform better, even when spend is limited.

• Offsite & Cross‑Channel Activation

Retail media isn’t just about on‑site ads anymore. By extending campaigns to offsite display or CTV (connected TV), retailers amplify reach while staying tied to real data.

• Stronger Attribution & Measurement Frameworks

In uncertain times, every advertiser wants proof. By showing incremental sales lift, ROAS, and conversion attribution, retailers retain advertiser trust and encourage repeat investment, even when budgets are under pressure. These moves don’t just protect ad revenue, they make it more efficient, reliable, and aligned with what advertisers now demand.

5. The Future Isn’t Recovery: It’s Reinvention

The shift we’re seeing isn’t a blip, it’s a structural realignment. Advertisers are done with splashy, high‑spend awareness campaigns that deliver vague metrics. They want commerce outcomes, efficiency, attribution, and real measurable sales.

Retailers who build robust, data-driven retail media networks now will come out of downturns stronger: with deeper relationships, healthier margins, and an ad business that scales with consumer behavior.

Moreover, industry forecasts confirm this: retail media ad spend globally is projected to surpass traditional linear and connected TV spend by 2026. If you run a marketplace or retail business, whether in grocery, fashion, beauty, or food services, now is the time to lean in and build your infrastructure!

Conclusion

A slowdown doesn’t have to mean a collapse. For retailers who act strategically, it can be an inflection point: a chance to turn traffic, context, and data into a stable ad‑revenue engine. By riding on retail media networks, optimizing for performance, and treating ad tech as a business asset, you can build a margin‑resilient platform that thrives, even when the economy and consumer sentiment wobble.

If you’re ready to build a retail media engine that generates predictable, high‑margin revenue while keeping control over data, ad inventory, and advertiser relationships, now’s the time to start. Explore how Osmos can help you launch or upgrade your retail media infrastructure and stay ahead of the curve.